Upside Risk Moving Forward

If I were to suggest to you a binary bet:  Would you bet the market will be up in 90 days or down in 90 days?  Where do you think the smart money would be?

With the bullish sentiment at pre-great recesion highs, I would say the money is on the market being lower than today, February 12, 2017.

This is simply my opinion and I think the probability of the market being down in the next 90 days is greater than the market continuing to go higher.  If you bet differently, then you get to take the other side of my bet, right?

This being said, I would caution both parties to this decision, however, this is not how we trade.  If you sell a strangle on the market today, you are “Delta Neutral” and the market direction is almost irrelevant to that one trade.  If you think like I do, you may lower the call a strike or two; then the put a strike or two.

You are taking on essentially the same risk, with a skew to the downside.

 

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