California Government is Hurting Public Safety – Badly!

AB953 Facebook.com Post

IF AB392 becomes law in California, there will be less people willing to be police officers. Tenured officers will retire, creating a younger, less experienced police force. That group will then make bad decisions which will subject them to criminal prosecution.
From there, it will be even harder to hire police officers and the costs will soar for salaries and benefits for the police. The laws put into place in the last couple years that limit pensions for police have already made it harder to hire police officers. Booming economy hurts this process, too.
Those costs will pale in comparison from the increased crime. That is crime that is above and beyond the already increased crime caused by AB109, Prop 47 and Prop 57. Those laws were made solely to put the cost of crime on the citizen and taxpayer, instead of the State goverment. How much does a loved one cost? The State of California has put a price on it; the cost of incarcerating the suspect. They are already free and soon will no longer have to worry about the police interfering. Don’t believe me? Read up on AB953 (https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160AB953), which has essentially made proactive policing a dead sport.
Get ready for a tip past the fulcrum point of California EVER being safe again. Please think about who you vote for and what your support.


https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/op-ed/article229339124.html

Weekend Market Summary for 03/23/19 by InvestmentHouse.com

032419 Weekend Status

One of my favorite macroeconomic websites is, of course, Investmenthouse.com. This week the newsletter talks about:

– Weak German PMI reports, weak Japanese output, yield curve inversion fears bring out the first serious sellers in a long time. 
– After a solid break upside Thursday, SP500 and NASDAQ are sold back into the range. 
– Small and midcaps threaten to break their uptrends. 
– Friday was likely inversion panic, but was it even warranted? 
– The market never peaks the first day of an inversion, so even if Friday was an yield curve inversion with meaning, the top is still a lot of upside moves away. 
– Even if this wasn’t an inversion to worry about, the move itself deserves respect, and some areas look very ready to sell. 

The big issue was the 3 month/10 Year inversion, however, there is not a lot of evidence that the 3mo/10yr inversion is a precursor to a recession. Most economists theorize that the 2yr/10yr inversion is a more sure sign. Of course, a short term inversion would happen before a 2 year, right? So, it can be an early indicator, but probably not an indicator with the certainty of a longer range inversion.

Note: I love their references to old-time movies or TV shows, read at their website for this week’s reference!

One more quote from the story, “The market is at one of those gut check points for the near term. Will the indices shake off the inversion worry and continue the upside, will they test back to midpoint or the bottom of the October/December consolidation range, or will they fully correct to the December low?”

So, in a nutshell, they’re suggesting a little more downside in the short-term, but saying the 3 month/10 year inversion, even if it were to show a recession, would not take shape for several more months.

Our Opinion? I believe there will be some more downside, although Monday may be tricky. The chart above shows a down arrow on Person Pivots (PPS on ThinkorSwim) and a break below the previous bar. The Implied Volatility is moving up, as well. It could be algorithims that overreacted to the inversion news, yet I believe it may just be time for some selling, too. Monday may be dubious as there is often an akward day after a PPS, which could be up at times, then a move down or flat. Tuesday will tell the real story from the technicals I keep an eye on.

I am playing this downside as an attempt to capture some long theta against the increase in volatility. I will wait a day or two to sell some calls against my long vol plays and probably adjust/roll expiring trades with the increased volatility. I have several trades that will need to be rolled starting on Thursday, so hopefully there is a few extra days of downside to get those plays in.

To read the original article, or to subscribe yourself, visit: InvestmentHouse.com

Yield Curve Fears on the Horizon? From #RealInvestmentAdvice

I recently came across the website RealInvestmentAdvice.com and their discussion on the yield curve flattening.  I also read the Investmenthouse.com and their discussion on the FED always overshooting interest rate hikes.  This weekend’s newsletter from Investmenthouse.com even referred to the FED member’s justifications towards the flattening that the yield curve is no longer accurate; this time it’s different; etc.  It appears we will be a victim of the fed again.

There are two factors at work with rate hikes, one is size (25 basis points, versus 50 basis point rise) and time.  My question, if we know there is data showing a softening and there could be a need to postpone (versus withdrawl) and planned rate hike, what’s the harm?  I believe the fear is the market will react to that and they fear a selloff.  That is not the FED’s mandate however.  Just like previous presidents, secretaries of state, and congress, there has been very little decisive action, unless there is maximum pain in not making that decision.  Hopefully, the FED takes a play out of President Trump’s playbook and decides to be proactive versus reactive.

For reference, as of this writing, the 2/10 yield curve is sitting at .21 and heading for inversion.

For more on this from an excellent article, head over to:  http://realinvestmentadvice.com/dont-fear-the-yield-curve/

The Need for More – Diderot Effect from Medium

Diderot Image

What a great article.  I want to bring good things to my readers and this is one I came across which outlines why people buy things they don’t need and feel they need more.

The advice is sound and I feel an ackowledgement this happens to all of us is important.  I would add one more factor to this whole buying “Stuff” thing.  I think everyone has a couple items that are their weakness.  For me it’s Tech and Computers.  I always feel I need the best-of-the-best and then need all the accessories, too.  Some I use, some I don’t.

I would add to the article to use Pareto’s law to identify the top few things that are your “weakness” and train yourself to minimize purchases, skip a generation of new and learnt to make due.  If not for the cost savings, perhaps for your emotional well-being.

Read more at:  The Diderot Effect: Why We Want Things We Don’t Need — And What to Do About It